Gold prices edged lower in early Monday trading, with spot gold (XAU/USD) dipping to $3,415 after touching an intraday high of $3,452—its strongest level since April 22. Despite the mild pullback, gold remains supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance in the months ahead.
U.S. gold futures slipped 0.1% to $3,448.10, while spot prices held firm above the key $3,400 psychological support level. “The break above $3,400 marks a clear shift in sentiment,” said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA. “But the market is pausing here, waiting for signals from the Fed. If we break above $3,500, it opens room for a more extended move.”
Geopolitics and Fed Expectations Anchor Gold
Rising tensions in the Middle East continue to drive safe-haven demand, though resilient equity markets in Asia have tempered further upside for now. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has rebounded modestly from recent lows, exerting pressure on non-yielding assets like gold.
Traders are positioning cautiously ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which begins Tuesday. While the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, market participants are focused on forward guidance and revised economic projections. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 62% probability of a rate cut by September.
Silver Holds Steady Near $36.35
Silver (XAG/USD) traded at $36.29 during Monday’s session, just below the intraday peak of $36.39. Like gold, silver is benefiting from safe-haven demand and expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy. However, modest strength in the U.S. dollar and improving risk sentiment in equity markets have capped further gains.
Technical analysts are watching the $36.52 level as a key resistance point. A break above this threshold could signal renewed bullish momentum.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
For gold, a sustained move above $3,452 could pave the way toward a test of the $3,500 resistance zone. On the downside, immediate support is seen around $3,408. As long as prices remain above the $3,400 level, the broader uptrend remains intact.
Silver is currently holding above near-term support at $36.27. A decisive move above $36.52 would likely confirm a bullish breakout and open the door for further gains.
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