Roy-Byrne, a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and Market Forecasting Technical Analyst (MFTA), argues that a rare convergence of technical signals and macroeconomic forces is setting the stage for a breakout in precious metals. In his view, the March 2024 breakout in gold from a 13-year “cup-and-handle” formation marks a crucial technical confirmation of a new bullish cycle.
“The alignment between technical patterns and macro conditions is unusually strong right now,” said Roy-Byrne, author of Gold & Silver: The Greatest Bull Market Has Begun. “This is a classic setup for a sustained bull run.”
He points to rising U.S. Treasury yields, a weakening bond market, and growing concerns over credit quality as catalysts supporting higher gold and silver prices. These dynamics were recently underscored by two major institutional developments: Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. government’s final AAA credit rating, and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s stark warnings about systemic risks stemming from inflation, stagflation, and geopolitical instability.
Historical Parallels and Price Projections
Roy-Byrne draws parallels between today’s environment and the macro backdrops that preceded past gold bull markets in 1930, 1972, and 2002. He notes that, in real terms, gold has broken out from a 45-year base and has already outperformed both the S&P 500 and the traditional 60/40 investment portfolio — two key indicators of relative strength.
Based on technical and historical analysis, Roy-Byrne forecasts that gold could reach $3,700 by year-end, with a 12-month target range of $4,400 to $4,500.
Silver, which has lagged behind gold in recent months, is also primed for a breakout, according to Roy-Byrne. He identifies $35 and $37 as critical resistance levels. Should silver surpass the $50 mark, he projects that prices could triple within 12 to 15 months, driven by the completion of its own 45-year base formation.
Mining Stocks Offer Asymmetric Upside
In addition to physical metals, Roy-Byrne sees substantial value in gold mining equities. He highlights a rare disconnect between current valuations and earnings potential, which he believes presents an opportunity for “outsized returns” for disciplined investors.
“Mining stocks are significantly undervalued relative to the fundamentals,” he said. “But success in this space requires patience, a focus on company-specific fundamentals, and a disciplined approach to profit-taking.”
He advises investors to establish clear exit strategies, avoid short-term market noise, and lock in gains during significant upward moves.
As market volatility continues and the macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain, Roy-Byrne’s analysis suggests that gold and silver may play a critical role in portfolio strategies for the remainder of 2025 and beyond.
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