Market Holds Steady as Traders Await Fed Decision

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Gold prices in India edged higher on Wednesday morning, as market participants maintained a cautious stance ahead of a pivotal policy announcement from the U.S. Federal Reserve and fresh geopolitical comments from former President Donald Trump.

In early domestic trade, the price of 24-carat gold rose modestly to ₹9,420.74 per gram, up from ₹9,398.42 the previous day. The price of one tola (approximately 11.66 grams) climbed to ₹109,881.30, reflecting a gain of roughly ₹260.

India Gold Price Snapshot (June 18, 2025)

The Indian gold market is currently in a holding pattern, with traders refraining from large positions ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting set to conclude later today. While the U.S. Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, investor attention is squarely focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks and the updated “dot plot”—the central bank’s forecast for future rate moves.

Weakening U.S. economic data has added weight to expectations of policy easing later this year:

Retail sales in May fell by 0.9%, missing consensus forecasts.

Industrial production declined by 0.2%, pointing to broader signs of economic slowdown.

These indicators have softened the U.S. dollar, indirectly supporting gold prices as the metal becomes cheaper for foreign investors.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Lends Further Support

Meanwhile, intensifying conflict in the Middle East is bolstering gold’s status as a safe-haven asset. Hostilities between Iran and Israel have extended into a sixth consecutive day, with missile strikes exchanged despite international appeals for de-escalation.

Adding to market jitters, former President Donald Trump sharply escalated his rhetoric, demanding Iran’s unconditional surrender. U.S. military deployments have also increased in the region, heightening concerns of broader conflict.

At the same time, Trump hinted at new trade tariffs—this time targeting pharmaceutical imports—just weeks ahead of the July 9 tariff review. These comments have further unsettled investors already navigating a volatile global landscape.

Technical Outlook: Caution Near Key Levels

From a charting perspective, gold is exhibiting signs of consolidation after an early June rally that lost momentum near the ₹3,440 mark on the 1-hour chart. The current trading range is tight, with gold hovering around ₹3,395, and a lack of conviction from buyers ahead of the Fed’s decision.

Key technical levels to monitor in Indian pricing:

Resistance: ₹9,460 per gram

Support: ₹9,370 per gram

A breakout above resistance could revive bullish momentum, while a drop below support may lead to short-term weakness toward the ₹3,360 region.

Market Outlook

Although gold is not seeing explosive gains at the moment, it remains firmly supported by macroeconomic uncertainty, safe-haven flows, and rising geopolitical risk. Analysts suggest that more significant price movement may be deferred until after Powell’s press conference and the release of the Fed’s updated projections.

“With both monetary policy and geopolitical headlines in play, gold continues to be a hedge against risk,” said one commodities strategist. “Any hawkish tilt from the Fed could cap upside, but continued global instability may keep buyers interested.”

Conclusion

Indian gold buyers should prepare for modest price fluctuations today. However, more substantial movements in either direction will likely depend on the Fed’s forward guidance and any further geopolitical developments. As always, investors are advised to stay alert and consider risk-managed strategies in a market driven by headlines and policy cues.

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