Gold prices are on track to register a weekly gain after a period of choppy trading, yet remain well below recent all-time highs. The market continues to grapple with conflicting technical signals and macroeconomic uncertainties, leaving investors divided on whether to buy, sell, or hold the yellow metal. With prices consolidating near a critical resistance zone, analysts are urging caution and encouraging intraday traders to monitor key technical levels closely.
Market Snapshot: Technical Indicators Suggest Caution
As of Friday, the MCX Gold June 2025 contract is trading at ₹95,600 per 10 grams, positioning itself at a crucial technical crossroad. The market has repeatedly failed to sustain momentum above the ₹96,000 mark, which is emerging as a formidable resistance zone. Several indicators—including moving averages and momentum oscillators—are pointing toward potential weakness ahead.
The 8-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently stands at ₹95,550, slightly below the current price, while the 21-day EMA rests at ₹95,650, suggesting resistance from short-term trend indicators.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 57.50, reflecting a neutral stance but with a minor bearish divergence.
Price action is currently situated near the middle Bollinger Band, with repeated rejections observed at the upper band, signaling potential distribution and exhaustion.
Traders are interpreting this consolidation near the resistance zone as a sign of distribution—a technical phase where buying pressure wanes and sellers begin to dominate. These conditions are ripe for contrarian strategies.
Intraday Trading Strategies: Sell-on-Rise and Breakdown Play
Analysts are outlining two distinct intraday strategies for navigating today’s trading session:
Strategy 1: Sell on Rise
Traders are advised to watch for selling opportunities near the ₹95,800 level, a zone marked by the confluence of the upper Bollinger Band, previous pivot resistance, and the recent swing high.
Sell Zone: ₹95,750–₹95,850
Stop Loss: ₹96,050
Targets: ₹95,400 (initial), ₹95,200, and ₹94,950 (extended for aggressive positions)
Execution Tip: Wait for bearish reversal candlestick patterns (e.g., Doji, Shooting Star) around the resistance zone, confirmed by negative RSI divergence and declining volume on the up-move. After the first target is hit, trailing the stop loss to ₹95,650 is recommended to protect gains.
Strategy 2: Breakdown Below ₹95,250
Should gold breach the ₹95,250 mark decisively, it would confirm the failure of the current consolidation phase and suggest deeper corrective movement.
Entry Trigger: ₹95,200 on breakdown
Stop Loss: ₹95,450
Targets: ₹94,900, ₹94,650, and ₹94,300
This approach is ideal for momentum traders looking to capitalize on accelerated moves once the support gives way.
Outlook: Reversal Pattern Takes Shape Amid External Pressures
The overall outlook remains cautiously bearish in the short term. The metal’s inability to breach the ₹96,000 ceiling convincingly indicates underlying fragility. Market structure shows signs of a possible reversal formation, supported by weakening momentum and selling pressure at higher levels.
Adding to the cautious tone are external headwinds. The U.S. dollar is showing signs of stabilizing after its recent slide, while Treasury yields are climbing, offering a more attractive risk-free alternative to gold. These factors may further dampen bullish sentiment.
Risk Management: Position Sizing and Exit Discipline Key
Given the heightened volatility in the precious metals market, experts strongly advise stringent risk controls:
Limit risk exposure to no more than 2% of capital per trade
Employ disciplined position sizing
Stay vigilant for contradictory price action and exit swiftly if trends reverse
Key Catalysts to Watch
Several macroeconomic and geopolitical triggers could influence gold’s trajectory in the near term:
Upcoming U.S. economic data releases, particularly related to inflation and employment
Federal Reserve commentary on interest rates and the fiscal outlook
Dollar Index and U.S. bond yield movements
Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East and Asia
Market participants are encouraged to remain nimble and responsive to real-time developments, ensuring their strategies align with both technical setups and the broader economic landscape.
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