Morning Session
Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors: In the Asian trading session in the morning, the market sentiment was relatively stable. However, geopolitical tensions were escalating, which provided support for gold prices2. The safe – haven demand for gold was increasing, as investors were worried about the potential impact of geopolitical conflicts on the global economy. For example, the air strikes by the US and the UK on Yemen made investors more inclined to hold gold as a hedge against risks3.
Technical Analysis: From a technical perspective, according to the 60 – minute chart, the gold price was trading within an upward channel2. This indicated that the short – term trend of gold was bullish. The 14 – day RSI was close to the overbought level, which also supported the long – term bullish trend2. Investors could consider buying gold at this time, but they needed to pay attention to the resistance level at around $3,004 per ounce. If the price could break through this level, the upward trend would be more certain.
Economic Data Impact: In the morning, there was no major domestic or international economic data released. However, the market was still affected by the previous week’s economic news. The economic uncertainty caused by the US tax war and the cooling of inflation boosted the market’s expectations for a Fed rate cut3. These factors were beneficial to the gold price and provided a certain foundation for investors to buy gold.
Afternoon Session
US Economic Data Release: In the afternoon, investors should focus on the release of US economic data, such as the February retail sales data and the New York manufacturing data3. If these data were worse than expected, it would further strengthen the market’s expectations for a Fed rate cut, which would be bullish for gold. On the contrary, if the data were better than expected, it might lead to a strengthening of the US dollar and put pressure on the gold price. For example, if the retail sales data showed a significant decline, it would indicate a slowdown in the US economy, and investors would be more likely to turn to gold.
Technical Resistance and Support Levels: Technically, the resistance level of international spot gold in the afternoon was around $3,004 – $3,027 per ounce, and the support level was around $2,961 – $2,939 per ounce2. If the gold price could break through the resistance level, it would be a good time to buy. Investors could set stop – loss and take – profit levels according to these technical levels to manage risks. If the price was blocked by the resistance level and showed signs of a pullback, investors should be cautious and wait for a better opportunity.
Market Liquidity: In the afternoon trading session, the liquidity of the gold market was relatively good. There were more market participants, and the trading volume was relatively high. This made it easier for investors to execute transactions at the desired price. However, investors still needed to pay attention to the spread between the buying and selling prices to avoid excessive trading costs.
Evening Session
Fed Rate Decision Outlook: In the evening, the focus was still on the outlook for the Fed rate decision. Although there was no specific Fed – related news on the 17th, investors were constantly analyzing and speculating based on various economic data and market trends3. If the market’s expectations for a Fed rate cut continued to increase, it would provide support for the gold price. On the contrary, if there were any signs that the Fed might maintain a hawkish stance or delay the rate – cut process, it would put pressure on the gold price. Investors could pay attention to the comments of Fed officials and the analysis of economic research institutions to understand the market’s expectations for the Fed rate decision.
Global Market Trends: The trends of global financial markets in the evening also had an impact on the gold market. If the global stock market showed signs of weakness, it would prompt investors to shift their funds to safe – haven assets such as gold, which would be beneficial to the gold price. On the other hand, if the stock market performed well, it might attract capital away from the gold market. In addition, the performance of the bond market and the currency market could also affect the gold price. For example, if the US bond yield decreased, it would be conducive to the rise of the gold price.
Investor Sentiment and Positioning: In the evening, investor sentiment and positioning were also important factors to consider. If investors were generally optimistic about the future trend of gold, it would drive more buying behavior. At the same time, the positioning of institutional investors and large – scale funds could also affect the short – term trend of the gold market. If institutional investors increased their gold holdings, it would have a positive impact on the gold price.
Technical Analysis: Technically, according to the 60 – minute chart of gold, the price was moving within an upward channel in the morning, indicating a short – term bullish trend5. The 14 – day RSI (Relative Strength Index) was close to the overbought level, which also supported the continuation of the upward trend. However, investors needed to pay attention to the resistance level at around $3,004 per ounce5. If the gold price could break through this level, it would be a stronger signal to buy, and the upward trend would be more certain.
Economic Data Impact: In the morning, there was no major domestic or international economic data released. But the market was still influenced by the previous week’s economic news. The ongoing US tax war and the cooling of inflation had increased market expectations for a Fed rate cut. These factors were beneficial to the gold price, as a rate cut would weaken the US dollar and make gold more attractive as an alternative investment.
Afternoon Session
US Economic Data Release: In the afternoon, the release of US economic data was crucial. Data such as the February retail sales and the New York manufacturing data could have a significant impact on the gold market. If these data were worse than expected, it would strengthen the market’s expectations for a Fed rate cut, which would be bullish for gold. For example, if the retail sales data showed a decline, it would suggest a slowdown in the US economy, and investors would be more inclined to buy gold as a safe – haven asset. On the other hand, if the data were better than expected, it might lead to a strengthening of the US dollar and put pressure on the gold price.
Technical Resistance and Support Levels: In the afternoon, the resistance level of international spot gold was around $3,004 – $3,027 per ounce, and the support level was around $2,961 – $2,939 per ounce5. If the gold price could break through the resistance level, it would be a good opportunity to buy. Investors could set stop – loss and take – profit levels according to these technical levels to manage risks. If the price was blocked by the resistance level and showed signs of a pullback, investors should be cautious and wait for a better buying opportunity.
Market Liquidity: The liquidity of the gold market was relatively good in the afternoon trading session. There were more market participants, and the trading volume was relatively high. This made it easier for investors to execute transactions at their desired prices. However, investors still needed to pay attention to the spread between the buying and selling prices to avoid excessive trading costs.
Evening Session
Fed Rate Decision Outlook: In the evening, the focus was still on the outlook for the Fed rate decision. Although there was no specific Fed – related news on March 17, investors were constantly analyzing and speculating based on various economic data and market trends. If the market’s expectations for a Fed rate cut continued to increase, it would provide support for the gold price. On the contrary, if there were any signs that the Fed might maintain a hawkish stance or delay the rate – cut process, it would put pressure on the gold price. Investors could pay attention to the comments of Fed officials and the analysis of economic research institutions to understand the market’s expectations for the Fed rate decision.
Global Market Trends: The trends of global financial markets in the evening also had an impact on the gold market. If the global stock market showed signs of weakness, it would prompt investors to shift their funds to safe – haven assets such as gold, which would be beneficial to the gold price. On the other hand, if the stock market performed well, it might attract capital away from the gold market. In addition, the performance of the bond market and the currency market could also affect the gold price. For example, if the US bond yield decreased, it would be conducive to the rise of the gold price.
Investor Sentiment and Positioning: In the evening, investor sentiment and positioning were important factors to consider. If investors were generally optimistic about the future trend of gold, it would drive more buying behavior. At the same time, the positioning of institutional investors and large – scale funds could also affect the short – term trend of the gold market. If institutional investors increased their gold holdings, it would have a positive impact on the gold price
