Gold’s recent spike to $3,500 was quickly followed by a sharp pullback, as markets react violently to every new trade-related headline. Weldon attributes this volatility to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, exacerbated by the unpredictable policy influence of former President Donald Trump.
Still, he advises looking past short-term noise. “The Fed will be forced to print more money,” Weldon insists. “It’s not about if—it’s when.” In his view, gold is the only reliable hedge against an increasingly unsustainable monetary system.
Japan: A Preview of America’s Debt Future?
Weldon highlights Japan’s deteriorating financial position as a warning for the U.S. Real interest rates in Japan are deeply negative, and recent 40-year bond auctions have floundered. Life insurers face steep unrealized losses, and policymakers are struggling to stabilize public finances.
Markets briefly celebrated Japan’s efforts, prompting an $80 drop in gold, but Weldon sees the reaction as misguided. “Japan is simply ahead of the curve,” he says. “The U.S. will be next when the Fed withdraws and foreign buyers dry up.”
U.S. Bond Market: A Tsunami of Debt Approaches
Weldon describes the U.S. bond market as nearing a crisis point. More than $9.3 trillion in federal debt matures within the next 12 months, with another $1.4 trillion in new borrowing planned over just five months. Compounding the issue, the Federal Reserve is trimming its balance sheet by $50 billion per month, and international demand has waned.
“This is a closed loop of debt,” Weldon argues. “The public is now being asked to fund its own deficits—a model that simply cannot last.”
The Inevitable Return of QE and a Weaker Dollar
While the market is pricing in one or two rate cuts this year, Weldon believes quantitative easing (QE) is inevitable once bond markets show signs of distress. “They’ll be buying bonds so fast it’ll make your head spin,” he says. In that scenario, inflation will once again take a backseat to financial stability, and the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken sharply.
Consumer Stress: The Silent Crisis
Beneath the headlines, consumer finances are faltering. Credit card debt has fallen for four straight months, and revolving credit has declined for five—patterns last seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID collapse. Total U.S. savings declined by $35 billion in a single month, with just 65% coverage of outstanding credit card balances.
Delinquencies are also climbing, with 13% of balances over 90 days past due, nearing levels last recorded in 2010. Consumer sentiment has plunged to its lowest point since 1979—just before the Volcker-era rate hikes.
Secular Bond Bear Market Has Begun
Weldon agrees with market historian Jim Grant that the U.S. has entered a long-term bear market for bonds. With total debt reaching $55 trillion (186% of GDP), every new dollar of growth requires nearly $1.86 in debt—a ratio Weldon calls “mathematically unworkable.”
Global De-Dollarization Gains Momentum
International moves to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar are accelerating. BRICS nations are pushing for alternative systems, Asian trade alliances are deepening, and E.U. nations are aligning with non-dollar settlements. Weldon sees this as both a political and financial inflection point that will force yields higher—and support gold as a safe-haven asset.
Gold, Crypto, and Silver: Parallel Paths of Protection
Weldon disputes the notion that higher interest rates must weaken gold. If yields rise due to collapsing trust in U.S. bonds, gold and Bitcoin may both benefit. In regions like Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkey, digital assets are increasingly used as stores of value amid fiat devaluation.
Weldon believes both gold and crypto represent resistance to systemic decay—and both will gain further traction.
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