Gold (XAU/USD) rebounded modestly above $3,380 after dipping near $3,362 amid rising geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand. However, the rebound is shallow, with upside capped by macroeconomic headwinds, including a firmer U.S. dollar and cautious Federal Reserve signals. Year-to-date, gold has gained nearly 12%, but momentum is weakening.
Silver (XAG/USD) also edged higher near $36.75, supported by safe-haven flows but pressured by dollar strength and tightening monetary policy.
Federal Reserve Impact
The Fed kept interest rates steady (5.25%-5.50%) but trimmed expectations for rate cuts through 2027, increasing uncertainty. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose to a nine-day high, dampening precious metals by reducing their appeal for non-dollar buyers.
Technical Analysis
Gold
Gold broke below a key ascending trendline on the 1-hour chart, trading near $3,355 after failing to surpass $3,375–$3,380 resistance levels. Both the 50-EMA ($3,383) and 200-EMA ($3,375) now act as resistance.
The bearish breakout from a tightening wedge pattern and a series of lower highs signal growing downside momentum. Immediate support is at $3,338, then $3,319. Failure to reclaim $3,375 soon could lead to deeper losses.
Silver
Silver broke below its rising trendline and the $36.59 support, trading near $36.41. The 50-EMA ($36.80) rejected recent rallies, while the 200-EMA ($36.27) now serves as support.
The technical breakdown signals a shift toward bearish sentiment after days of consolidation. Unless silver quickly recovers above $36.59, further declines toward $35.97 and $35.61 are likely.
Short-Term Outlook
Both gold and silver face near-term bearish pressure with downside targets set near $3,319 for gold and $35.61 for silver. Volatility may increase due to low liquidity amid the U.S. Juneteenth holiday and ongoing geopolitical risks. Traders should watch for key levels and dollar moves for directional clues.
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